The price reduction trend has ended, and corn has entered a rebound period

The scope and magnitude of the domestic corn price reduction significantly weakened yesterday, and more companies began to rise. At the same time, the pressure on companies to deliver goods also showed a clear decline. Although the market has not yet stabilized, the price reduction wave is indeed coming to an end, and prices are about to enter a rebound period. The question of how much longer corn will fall and whether it can rise before the Spring Festival is about to enter the expected six-month upward period. The wheat and corn market finally feels like "clearing the clouds and seeing a clear day"! Today we will mainly discuss what grain holders need to pay attention to and predict price increases at the current stage!

In the past week, most of the time, Shandong enterprises have received over a thousand units of goods, and the entire market is also "green". However, as we have mentioned many times, the trading in the North China and Shandong markets is mainly based on grain sources with a moisture content of over 18%. People are still reluctant to sell dry grain. Although the willingness of intermediate traders to build warehouses is low, the purchase of dry grain has not stopped. Recently, with the decline in prices, the moisture standard for building warehouses has been relaxed to 16-18%. At the same time, the significance of selling grain for grassroots farmers has also begun to decline significantly, especially after several snowfalls in Shandong. In the next half month, the supply and demand sides will once again engage in a big battle, and the pressure on enterprises that have fallen below the 1 yuan mark will sharply increase. Oh!

At present, the biggest threat to the North China and Shandong regions is tidal grain, and sufficient supply of tidal grain in the market will cause enterprises to purchase at a lower price, which in turn will affect the mentality of grain holders, forming a "vicious cycle". Fortunately, the current situation is beginning to ease, without considering other profit factors. However, the favorable weather conditions for tidal grain storage have to some extent eased the sales pressure of grassroots grain holders, and it is normal for prices to enter a rebound period. However, it should be noted that risks still exist, mainly from the following three points:

1. At present, there is still a large amount of surplus grain in the tide grain market. With the rebound of prices, the willingness of grain holders to sell will inevitably be mobilized again. Although it is temporary, prices are prone to fluctuations, but the editor believes that the overall trend is fluctuating and rising!

2. The "sneaky operations" of enterprises will not stop, and may even intensify, with the aim of stimulating the trend of grain production. After all, they are accustomed to "low-priced grain" and still have a price demand for stocking up near the Double Festival. This is unsolvable and purely a case of Yang strategy, because the mentality of grain holders this year is generally fragile!

3. Worried about the entry of grain from Northeast China into the country, with the rise in prices in North China and Shandong, if there is a profit margin with Northeast China, the grain from Northeast China will flow into Shandong, and there will still be some impact. However, like North China, the main threat to the flow is the tidal grain!

Regarding the Northeast region, yesterday's price reduction range and magnitude have significantly weakened, and there has even been a rebound in the Heilongjiang region. This means that the daily trend of price reductions by Northeast enterprises in the tens and twenties is finally coming to an end, which is related to the suspension of imported corn auctions. In addition, according to the current progress of grain sales, after the Spring Festival, especially before spring sowing, corn prices are likely to have a more obvious upward trend. Regarding the news that Tongliao, Zhalantun, Gannan, Zhaoguang and other grain depots have announced in recent days that their acquisition tasks will be completed, and there will be subsequent price reductions or suspensions of acquisitions, it is normal. Currently, new storage points have been added one after another, and more grain depots will join in the future. As for whether the one-time collection and storage will be launched after New Year's Day, At present, it remains to be observed, but the official core has already become clear - "maintaining stability", But currently, the performance of local enterprises is purely a slap in the face of the authorities, and it depends on how policies can exert their "subjective initiative" in the future!

The main directions that need to be paid attention to in the next half month are: the quantity of grain sources circulating in the market, the arrival situation of enterprises, the demand for downstream enterprise orders, policy guidance changes, and the sales situation of channel traders. Regarding the price of corn, there is no need to shout "no rescue", as we have been mentioning recently. Everyone should consider the planting cost. In addition, whether it is deep processing or feed enterprises, they will also make stocking purchases before the Spring Festival to some extent; Corn has obvious cost-effectiveness advantages, gradually regaining the consumption space of a group of substitutes, and there is still a stable basis for price increases!

Summary: Recently, there will be frequent fluctuations in enterprise prices, with the main reference point being the delivery situation of enterprises. After all, the vast majority of people cannot research the sales situation of various regions. Although the general trend of corn prices has become clear after entering this month, due to various factors, Shandong enterprises are likely to maintain a price of around 2100-2300 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, and the overall price in Northeast China will remain between 2000-2100 yuan/ton. However, the cyclical changes this month will be more obvious. Although the purchasing side still dominates, with the decrease in temperature, there will also be new changes in prices. In the future, we will focus on weather changes, policy collection and storage situation, and enterprise start-up and stocking situation!

As for the demand for feed, although there has been a rebound, it falls short of expectations and has little effect on the current rise in new corn prices! Although the possibility of a significant increase in corn prices has been basically cut off before the Spring Festival, the editor believes that the opportunity for corn will be from June to September after the New Year. The main reason for this judgment is that the progress of grain sales this year is relatively fast, and there may be temporary supply shortages in the later stage. Although it is difficult to reproduce the peak, it will at least be 100-200 yuan/ton higher than the current price!

The recent sharp decline in wheat prices has once again seriously stimulated the mentality of grain holders. Currently, many grain holders have completely lost confidence in wheat, and the rest is to quickly find time to ship. With the increase in market volume, it is only natural for enterprises to lower prices again. Although the price reduction started to slow down yesterday, the editor believes that it may be affected by the weather. It is better to pay attention to the delivery situation in the next two days. However, the editor wants to say that the current shipment is not a good time. Pay attention to the auction of China National Grain Reserves Corporation. The editor suggests that everyone pay more attention to the transaction price, delivery cycle, grain source years, and transaction situation, just like this round of auction. The editor's personal opinion is that... Coming towards the corn, but there's no need to panic excessively. Before the policy of collecting and storing continues, The fluctuation range of wheat is within a controllable range, but periodic shipments will occur frequently. The game between supply and demand sides will not undergo fundamental changes in the short term!

After entering this month, the purchase and sales of downstream flour have rebounded, and enterprises are facing the demand for replenishing inventory. Even if the bran market is under pressure, there is still profit margin for enterprises. Although the overall market situation is oversupply and the market presents a "double empty" situation, the short-term wheat spot may continue the weak and stable adjustment trend. However, with the emergence of the premium of China National Grain Reserves Corporation, it has played a good role in helping. This month's focus should still be on the situation of grain source entering the market and downstream procurement situation! The overall trend of the wheat market is bound to fluctuate and fluctuate before the Spring Festival, but the probability of a stage market situation will decrease, and the biggest variable is the stocking cycle of flour milling enterprises before and after the Spring Festival! With the passage of time, the confidence of grain holders in wheat has also been restored! Wheat is one of the two major staple foods we need, and it has an official minimum protection price. Currently, it is in the rotation stage of grain depots in various regions, and the price is unlikely to collapse easily. However, if wheat really wants to see a significant increase, it may have to wait until we enter the next cycle - New Year's Day and Spring Festival!