Analysis of National Feed Production in the First Three Quarters of 2024

In the first three quarters of this year, the output value and production of China's feed industry slightly decreased, the product structure was optimized and adjusted, the prices of raw materials generally fell, and the prices of feed products rebounded.

1、 Total output of feed

Affected by factors such as the decline in pig production capacity, the decrease in livestock and poultry inventory, and lower than expected breeding profits, feed production has fallen from a high level. In the first three quarters, the total output of industrial feed in China was 227.87 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%. Among them, the production of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed decreased by 4.1%, 11.6%, and 1.1% year-on-year, respectively, as shown in Table 1 and Figure 1.

2、 Production status of various types of feed

1. Pig feed has fallen from a high level. Since the beginning of this year, under the dual effects of market regulation and production capacity regulation, the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs has gradually been adjusted within a reasonable range, and the overall consumption of pig feed has shown a high-level downward trend. In the first three quarters, the production of pig feed was 102.29 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. Among them, the production of piglet feed, sow feed, and fattening pig feed decreased by 12.5%, 7.7%, and 4.7% year-on-year, respectively. The price of live pigs has steadily rebounded since hitting bottom in March, and pig farming has turned losses into profits, entering a good level of profitability. The demand for pig feed continues to improve, and the production of pig feed has increased slightly for four consecutive months, as shown in Figure 2.

2. Structural decline in egg and poultry feed. Since the beginning of this year, the inventory of eggs and poultry has maintained a high level, which is favorable for the demand for egg and poultry feed. However, due to the decline in feed raw material prices and the need for cost reduction in aquaculture, the structural adjustment of egg and poultry feed has resulted in a decrease in the proportion of compound feed, and the production of egg and poultry feed has slightly decreased. In the first three quarters, the production of egg and poultry feed was 22.88 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. Among them, the feed for laying hens and ducks decreased by 6.0% and 7.0% respectively, as shown in Figure 3.

3. There has been a slight increase in meat and poultry feed. The production capacity of meat and poultry is at a high level in recent years, and the overall supply is relatively loose. The demand for meat and poultry feed is steadily increasing. In the first three quarters, the production of meat and poultry feed was 70.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, at a high level in the same period of the past five years. Among them, the feed for broiler chickens decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the feed for meat ducks increased by 1.0%, as shown in Figure 4.

4. The demand for aquatic feed is slowly recovering. Affected by the long-term sluggish aquatic market and extreme weather in 2022-2023, the enthusiasm of farmers to invest in seedlings is not high, the amount of ponds has decreased, the pace of aquaculture has been delayed, and the conversion rate between various varieties has increased. After the Spring Festival in 2024, the prices of aquatic products gradually rebounded. With the gradual increase in seedling feeding, the demand for aquatic feed gradually recovered. However, due to the overall low storage capacity, the demand was lower than the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the production of aquatic feed was 18.59 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. Among them, the feed for freshwater aquaculture and seawater aquaculture decreased by 2.0% and 8.7% respectively year-on-year, as shown in Figure 5.

5. Ruminant animal feed continues to decline. Since the beginning of this year, due to the increase in domestic production, high imports, and sluggish consumption, the prices of milk and beef have continued to decline, while the price of mutton has remained weak. Beef and dairy farmers have generally suffered losses and reduced inventory. In the first three quarters, the production of ruminant animal feed was 10.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, marking the first decline since 2017. Among them, the feed for cows, beef cattle, and sheep decreased by 13.1%, 9.2%, and 11.4% respectively, as shown in Figure 6.

6. Pet feed is growing rapidly. The pet feed industry maintains a good development momentum, with continuous growth in feed production. In the first three quarters, the production of pet feed was 1.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, as shown in Figure 7.

3、 Feed production situation in different regions

From different provinces, in the first three quarters, three provinces including Guangxi, Guizhou, and Xinjiang saw year-on-year growth, with an average increase of 3.9%; 27 provinces including Shandong, Guangdong, Liaoning, and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps saw a year-on-year decline, with an average decrease of 4.9%, as shown in Figure 8.

4、 Price situation of feed raw materials

In the first three quarters, the prices of major feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal fell sharply. The average purchase prices of corn and soybean meal for feed enterprises were 2503 yuan/ton and 3571 yuan/ton, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% and 20.4%, respectively. Driven by the price comparison effect of meal types, the prices of cotton meal and rapeseed meal were 3617 yuan/ton and 2761 yuan/ton, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8% and 19.4%. The fishing situation in Peru has improved, port inventories continue to rise, market supply is sufficient, and imported fish meal prices are running weakly. The average purchase price for the first three quarters was 14406 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. The prices of amino acids and vitamins are mainly rising, while mineral elements are still running weakly, as shown in Figure 9.

5、 Price situation of feed products

In the first three quarters, the prices of major feed raw materials fell from high levels, which led to a year-on-year decrease in the ex factory prices of blended, concentrated, and additive premixed feed products. The prices of compound feed for pigs, laying hens, and broiler chickens decreased by 8.6% to 9.5% year-on-year, while the prices of concentrated feed decreased by 8.4% to 9.4% year-on-year; The price of additive premixed feed decreased by 1.8% to 2.7% year-on-year,