Corn welcomes an opportunity for price increase

This week, the decline in corn prices in Northeast China finally came to an end and saw a slight rebound. The purchase prices for deep processing in Jilin and Inner Mongolia have dropped by 10-40 yuan/ton, while prices in Heilongjiang and Liaoning have generally stabilized, with a significant increase in high-quality corn prices. On the other hand, North China is once again approaching the 1 yuan mark, and corn with average quality at the grassroots level continues to be sold to deep processing. Traders are cautious in building warehouses, and coupled with an increase in corn outflows from Northeast China, the market is under weak pressure. However, according to meteorological forecasts, the first cold wave and widespread rain and snow in the second half of the year from November 23 to 27 will affect the central and eastern regions of China, with temperatures dropping by 6-10 ℃. The rain and snow weather will affect the quantity and transportation, providing an opportunity for price rebound. However, December to January is the time for regular sales of grain on the ground, and the short-term rebound space is limited. The market for high-quality corn is promising.

Strong in the north, weak in the south, high quality and good price

This week, the temperature in Northeast China has decreased, making it easier to store grain sources. Farmers are becoming more reluctant to sell their corn, and the price of corn in Jilin is relatively low, leading to an increase in outflow. The quality of corn in Heilongjiang is relatively good, while in some areas of North China, Huangqu is still relatively high, and there is a shortage of dry grain in the market. Some high-quality corn continues to be sent to feed enterprises. Affected by temperature, the quality of corn grains is differentiated, with high quality and high price highlighted. The price difference between domestically stored corn or toxin protected corn and traded corn is at least 40 yuan/ton or more. In North China, the moisture content of corn at the grassroots level is mostly around 18-20%, and there is still not much dry grain. After deep processing, the quantity remains high, and the price is relatively weak with the quantity. In addition, due to the influence of weather and market conditions, the mentality of hoarding and reluctance to sell at the grassroots level is not strong, and the progress of grain sales is slightly faster than last year.

Maintaining a high level of inventory, port inventory surges rapidly

Since the increase in corn production in the new season, the willingness of traders in the production area to build warehouses has been weak, actively trading goods, and the prices in the north and south are not completely in line. The main direction of trading goods is still mainly in ports, and the port collection volume and downstream volume continue to be at a high level. At present, the inventory of the four northern ports has reached 3.45 million tons, more than double that of the same period last year, and the accumulation rate is significantly faster. At the same time, the number of ships docking at Nangang has further increased, and domestic trade inventory continues to rise. Downstream contract execution and forward contract procurement are not actively high. However, the import of corn has significantly decreased, and domestic and foreign trade corn inventory is currently not at a high level.

Price increase for unstable toxin grain depots

Last week, due to an increase in spoiled corn in Northeast China and a rush to sell it, prices quickly fell. At the same time, corn toxins were high and low toxicity corn was scarce. Currently, there are not only toxin problems, but also problems such as mold growth, burning, and drying damage. As a result, it becomes more difficult for traders to replenish their inventory, and the return rate of pig feed corn sent to feed enterprises has increased. The transaction rate of grain storage corn procurement also decreased this week, with a total release volume of 787000 tons and a total transaction volume of 300000 tons, a transaction rate of 38%. Last week, the total release volume was 844000 tons and the total transaction volume was 577000 tons, with a transaction rate of 68% (including two-way). Among them, the base price of corn procurement by Jilin Branch has been raised by 30-70 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of second-class corn according to national standards this week is around 2150-2180 yuan/ton.

In summary, the rainy and snowy weather will last for a long time next week, and corn will have a chance to rise. However, the weather in the central and eastern parts of Northeast China will be rainy and snowy first, which is prone to freezing and affecting grain quality again. We should pay attention to the quality situation after rain and snow. Nevertheless, the situation of a shortage of high-quality corn this year has been determined, and good corn is resistant to decline and the market is relatively good. North China has been experiencing a continuous decline, and with occasional price increases for corn in Northeast China, there is significant upward resistance, but the 1 yuan level remains relatively strong.