Is the global corn supply and demand tight or loose this year?

On November 8, 2024, the US Department of Agriculture released a supply and demand report, lowering estimates for US corn yield, production, and ending inventory for 2024/25. The expected corn production for 2024/2025 is 15.1 billion catties, a decrease of 60 million catties from last month. The expected yield of US corn in 2024/2025 is 183.1 bushels per acre, a decrease of 0.7 bushels per acre compared to last month's forecast. Due to a decrease in supply and no change in usage, the year-end inventory of corn for 2024/2025 is 1.9 billion catties, lower than last month's forecast of a decrease of 100 million catties.

In terms of global corn supply and demand adjustment, the US Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for global corn production in 2024/25 to 1.2194 billion tons this month, higher than last month's forecast of 1.21719 billion tons, an increase of 2.21 million tons. The global corn production in regions other than the United States increased, because the increase in Uganda, Malawi, Belarus, Mozambique, Kenya and Cameroon exceeded the decrease in Mexico, Türkiye and the European Union. The decrease in production in Mexico reflects a reduction in the estimated winter corn planting area. The estimated global corn export volume for 2024/25 has been slightly reduced to 189.83 million tons, a decrease of 670000 tons from last month. Corn exports from Brazil and South Africa have been lowered, while corn exports from Myanmar and Uganda have been raised. The global corn feed consumption for 2024/25 is expected to be 776.5 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons from the previous month. The decrease in ending corn inventories outside the United States mainly reflects that China's inventory reduction exceeds the increase in Mexico, Uganda, and Canada. The global corn ending inventory is expected to be 304.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons from last month.

This month, the import volume of Chinese corn for the fiscal year 2023/24 will be increased by 410000 tons to 23.41 million tons, and the balance change will be adjusted to 17.24 million tons. There will be no adjustment to the forecast data for the fiscal year 2024/25. The new season of corn has been launched in large quantities, and the market supply is sufficient. The consumption of corn for feed has steadily increased, and the willingness of deep processing enterprises to build warehouses has strengthened. The collection and storage of corn has steadily advanced, and the overall progress of farmers' grain sales is faster than last year