The year-on-year increase in grain imports in October 2024 may continue to be affected by the tightening of import policies

The latest data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that in October 2024, China imported about 10.748 million tons of grain, a year-on-year increase of 2.52%. From January to October 2024, China imported about 138 million tons of grain, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Looking at different varieties, imports of corn, wheat, and sorghum decreased month on month in October, while imports of soybeans and rice increased month on month. From the perspective of grain import structure, soybeans still account for the largest proportion of imported varieties, followed by barley, sorghum, corn, and wheat; The proportion of imported rice is the smallest.

According to customs data, China imported 270000 tons of corn in October 2024, a decrease of 19.4% month on month and 87.7% year-on-year; From January to October 2024, China imported approximately 13.03 million tons of corn, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. From the perspective of import source countries, 163920.74 tons of corn were imported from Brazil in October, a decrease of 27.57% month on month and 90.90% year-on-year; Imported 67800.57 tons of corn from Ukraine, a month on month increase of 29.25% and a year-on-year increase of 894.61%. Due to a bumper harvest of new corn, domestic corn prices have fallen, prompting China to slow down imports in recent months. Data shows that from January to October this year, Brazil exported over 2 million tons of corn to China, a decrease of 82% compared to the same period last year. In April of this year, there were rumors that the import corn policy would tighten. Since then, the monthly import corn quantity in China has significantly decreased. It is expected that under policy regulation, the overall import corn quantity in China in 2024/25 will decrease year-on-year.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2024, China imported 220000 tons of wheat, a decrease of about 12% month on month and 66.2% year-on-year; From January to October 2024, China imported a total of 10.92 million tons of wheat, a year-on-year increase of about 5%. From the perspective of import source countries, about 106000 tons of wheat were imported from Canada in October, a year-on-year decrease of 55%. In October, 43000 tons of wheat were imported from Kazakhstan. From June 2024 to May of the following year, China imported a total of 2.87 million tons of wheat, a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of barley in China in October 2024 was 940000 tons, unchanged from the previous month and decreased by 22.7% year-on-year; From January to October 2024, China imported a total of 12.75 million tons of barley, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%. In terms of import source countries, 48.57 million tons were imported from Australia from January to October, accounting for 38%; Argentina imported 1.645 million tons, accounting for 13%; France imported 1.83 million tons, accounting for 14.4%; Canada imports approximately 1.47 million tons, accounting for 11.5%. After the cancellation of the double punitive tariffs on Australian barley in August 2023, China returned to the Australian market and set a third high for Australian barley exports in 2023/24. This year, Australia accounts for approximately 40% of China's total barley imports. Affected by the significant decline in domestic corn prices since September, the comparative advantage of imported barley has gradually weakened. However, there are still a large number of Australian orders, and the demand for barley imports in January continues.

According to customs data, the total import volume of sorghum in China in October 2024 was 780000 tons, a decrease of 19.6% compared to the previous month and an increase of 15.9% year-on-year; From January to October 2024, China imported a total of 7.56 million tons of sorghum, a year-on-year increase of 74.8%. From the perspective of import source countries, 5.165 million tons were imported from the United States from January to October, accounting for 68.4%; Australia imported 1.59 million tons, accounting for 21%; Argentina imported 800000 tons, accounting for 10.6%. The price of corn is relatively low, and the comparative advantage of imported sorghum is lost. China's demand for imported feed grains may shift to other products, including barley. It is expected that the import volume of sorghum in China will decrease year-on-year in 2024/25. On November 20th, the top leaders of China and Brazil signed nearly 40 cooperation agreements, including approving Brazil's export of various agricultural products such as sorghum to China. With China approving the import of Brazilian sorghum, Brazil may become an important supplier of imported sorghum in the future, and it is expected that the import volume of sorghum from the United States will decline in the later period.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import of rice in October 2024 was 120000 tons, an increase of 33.3% month on month and a decrease of 5% year-on-year; From January to October 2024, China imported a total of 1.1 million tons of rice, a year-on-year decrease of 51.5%. In terms of import source countries, from January to October, 404000 tons were imported from Myanmar, accounting for 37.5%; Thailand imported 270000 tons, accounting for 25%; Vietnam imported 255000 tons, accounting for 24%; Cambodia imported 74000 tons, accounting for 6.9%. The domestic demand for feed is weak, and the price of alternative feed is more competitive. The import of broken rice is relatively hindered. In addition, compared with domestically produced medium grain rice in China, the global price of short grain rice does not have an advantage. Therefore, it is expected that the import volume will remain low.