2024年7月18日 星期一 19:43:55

生物乙醇加剧全球农产品价格上涨

 

    法国媒体援引法国国家统计及经济研究所(INSEE)的数据称,今年年初以来,国际市场小麦的价格上涨61.3%;玉米价格上涨53.9%;油料作物的价格上涨20.3%。以农作物、尤其粮食作物为基料的乙醇工业生产原材料的需求量不断膨胀,加剧了全球农产品价格的全面上涨。
  据经济学家们的分析,2007年,全球粮食作物价格攀升之神速,主要归结于,2007年全球天灾不断,农作物歉收;然而,亚洲人口的膨胀,粮食消费需求猛增;另一个重要因素,则是生物燃料计划的实施。
  最近,美国明尼苏达州大学的两位经济学教授的调研显示,由于全球生物燃料油工业的迅速崛起,生产规模的不断扩展,从今往后至2010年,国际市场上,仅玉米行情预计上涨20%;至2020年预计上涨41%。
  分析家认为,以上种种因素,将引发世界上贫困国家食品极度匮乏的危机。尤其,全球弃农迁居城市的人口急剧增长,同时城乡人口失衡也引发了食品供应的危机,由此估计粮食价格高增长的冲击波,在今后5年内亦无法平息。
  法国媒体追述道,今年3月份,古巴新闻界抨击美国总统提议生物燃料油的发展规划,认为美国生物汽油发展规划的实施,将迫使全球十几亿赤贫人口处于饥荒死亡境地。今年4月份,美国一份杂志评说道,全球作为生物燃料的乙醇工业日益发达,势必危及世上27亿仅靠每天不足2美元生存的贫困人口的生计。
  然而,也有专家认为,第2代生物燃料油生产工艺的问世,可能缓解能源与食品之间的生存之争。因为第2代生物燃料油的生产基料主要为木材、草本科、禾本科等非人类食用植物。但也有非议的是,第2代生物燃料油的生产仍有可能与粮食作物争用土地,然而最简捷的方法是控制运输量,减少能源的消耗。

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