Can the subsidy amount for rural soybeans and corn be increased this year?

At the beginning of this year, Scientifically Promoting Agriculture saw official statements to continue increasing support for corn and soybean producers in Northeast China through subsidies. However, this subsidy is only limited to the four provinces and regions of Northeast China and Inner Mongolia. Other parts of China, as they are not advantageous production areas for corn and soybeans, traditionally do not receive subsidies. From the official perspective, it means that there is hope for further increase in subsidies this year. However, it is expected that the subsidy amount for corn may be raised this year due to the promotion of agriculture through science. As for the traditional weak project soybean in China, the subsidy amount may not increase again this year because the current soybean subsidy amount is already very high.

Judging from the soybean subsidy amount in the past two years, I don't think anyone has any doubts about maintaining a high level, right? For example, last year the soybean subsidy in Heilongjiang region was as high as 255 yuan per mu, while the subsidy for corn was only 30 yuan, creating a sharp contrast. The high subsidies for soybeans are actually based on the serious shortage and extremely low production of soybeans in China, and even if one of the above two factors changes, the high subsidies for soybeans may be difficult to maintain.

This year, China's soybean imports have actually been relatively smooth. Despite the impact of the epidemic, fortunately, China reached a trade agreement with the United States in January this year and increased the import volume of soybeans and other agricultural products. According to data from Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture on June 24th, 74% of Brazil's soybeans were sold to China, indicating that Brazil's soybean exports to China are very smooth.

In May 2020, China's soybean imports were 9.377 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. In the first five months, domestic soybean imports were 33.883 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. Following this import trend, China's soybean supply situation is expected to be completely reversed this year, and the shortage of supply will be greatly alleviated. This also means that the foundation for maintaining high subsidies domestically has been shaken. Although it is expected that domestic soybean subsidies will still be relatively large, it may still be difficult to maintain the high subsidies of last year and the year before.

Another point that everyone needs to understand is that subsidies for both soybeans and corn are actually based on the planting area of the year. After several consecutive years of high subsidies, the planting area of soybeans has increased, which is equivalent to everyone sharing this subsidy. The larger the planting area, the lower the soybean subsidy per unit area. In addition, regarding corn, soybeans and corn are in a competitive position, and there may already be an answer to the subsidies for both in the midst of this increase and decrease.

Referring to the subsidy standards for soybeans and corn in the previous two years, this year's corn subsidy is expected to continue to increase. The corn subsidy is expected to remain at around 50 yuan, while the soybean subsidy can continue to be maintained at around 250 yuan per mu.