Corn prices have not continued to decline, rising by 4 yuan/ton and advancing towards 2230. Is there still room for further increase?

On November 7th, according to the market trend chart, the price of the main contract for corn 2501 opened low and rose slightly today. As of the close, the price of corn per ton increased by 4 yuan and advanced towards 2230 yuan/ton, closing at 2225 yuan/ton.

However, yesterday, the price of the main contract for corn 2501 fell slightly. Today, the price of the main contract for corn 2501 did not continue to decline, but rose by 4 yuan/ton and advanced towards 2230 yuan/ton. Does this mean that there is still room for the price of the main contract for corn 2501 to rise?

For this issue, the editor believes that there is a high probability that the price of the main contract for corn 2501 will further rise in the future.

Firstly, recently, the price of starch futures contracts in the near month has been "higher" than that of far month contracts, indicating that the market demand for starch is "rebounding".

Data shows that as of today's close, the price of starch 2411 contract closed at 2680 yuan/ton, while the price of starch 2501 main contract closed at 2617 yuan/ton.

In addition, according to data released by Mysteel, as of November 6th, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises in China was 854000 tons, an increase of 30000 tons from the previous week, a weekly increase of 3.64%, a monthly increase of 7.42%, and a year-on-year increase of 36.42%. It has been at its highest level in at least four years in the past month and a half.

From the above data, it can be seen that the inventory of corn starch in China is "expanding" in terms of weekly, monthly, and annual growth.

If on the surface, the inventory of corn starch in the country "increases", it is not conducive to boosting the market demand for corn, and it is also difficult to force the price of corn to rise.

However, if we look at the future demand for corn starch, it is highly likely that the increase in inventory in corn starch factories is intentional and not caused by the "unsold" corn starch.

As we all know, January 29, 2025 is the "Spring Festival". From today onwards, there are 22 days in 2 months and zero left before the "Spring Festival".

That is to say, as of November 6th, the increase in total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises nationwide is due to pre year "stocking", so these factors will boost the price of the main contract for corn 2501.

Secondly, recently, the price of the main contract for soybean meal 2501 has been continuously rising, which will enhance the substitutability of corn and force the market demand expectation for corn to further heat up.

According to the market trend chart, starting from November 6th and ending on November 7th, the price of the main contract for soybean meal 2501 has cumulatively increased by 139 yuan/ton in two trading days, with a growth rate of 4.70%.

Thirdly, yesterday, the global supply chain suppression index released by the United States for October has fallen to a "negative value", which will not only reduce global inflationary pressure, but also lead to a "recovery" of the global economy and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The data shows that the global supply chain stress index for the United States in October was -0.32, with a previous value of 0.11.

That is to say, in the future, the market expectation of a global economic "recovery" will lead to an "expansion" of demand for commodities, thereby boosting their prices.

In addition, the market expectation of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates is heating up, which will increase the pressure for global inflation to rebound, ultimately boosting commodity prices.

Recently, the prices of American corn and soybean meal have "stopped falling and turned up", which is highly likely due to this factor stimulating the market.

Therefore, the editor believes that under the combined effect of these factors, there is a high probability that the price of the main contract for corn 2501 will further rise in the future. What do you think about this, and do you agree with the editor's viewpoint?