Policy hits a combination punch, can corn borrow the east wind

Recently, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference have been held successively, and major economic policies have been released one after another - a strong policy wind is sweeping in, and relevant regulatory measures are like a combination of punches. Corn, as one of the important major agricultural products in China, is widely used in various fields such as food, feed, and chemical industry, and its importance is self-evident. Can the price market, which is still operating weakly, take advantage of this opportunity to emerge from the trough?

December 9th Central Politburo Meeting - Monetary easing strengthens unconventional countercyclical adjustments

The Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China analyzed and studied the economic work in 2025, and the expression of monetary policy has attracted attention. After more than 10 years, the monetary policy orientation has once again changed to "moderately loose", reflecting a supportive monetary policy stance and sending a positive signal.

Central Economic Work Conference on December 11-12- Ensuring Stable Production and Supply of Agricultural Products, Protecting Planting Enthusiasm

The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the coordinated promotion of new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, and the promotion of integrated urban-rural development. The agricultural sector emphasizes strict adherence to the red line of arable land and strict management of the balance between arable land occupation and compensation. Ensure stable production and supply of grain and important agricultural products, and improve the comprehensive efficiency and competitiveness of agriculture. Protect the enthusiasm of grain farmers and major grain producing areas, and improve the mechanism for forming grain prices. We will promote the integrated development of developing industries, strengthening counties, and enriching the people according to local conditions, and make every effort to broaden channels for increasing farmers' income. Develop modern urban agglomerations, enhance the modern governance level of mega cities, and vigorously develop county-level economies.

On December 13th, the Party Group of China Grain Reserves Corporation held an expanded meeting - to strengthen the collection and storage, and to play a "combination punch" of service regulation

The meeting conveyed the spirit of studying and implementing the Central Economic Work Conference. Among them, in response to the current situation of declining prices of corn and rice, we will coordinate the central government's reserve collection and storage, as well as the minimum purchase price acquisition, and play a "combination punch" of service regulation to play a leading and driving role in the market, maintain the stability of the grain market, and promote farmers to increase production and income.

Announcement of the National Bureau of Statistics on 2024 Grain Production Data on December 13th

1、 The national grain planting area is 119319 thousand hectares (1789.79 million mu), an increase of 351 thousand hectares (5.26 million mu) or 0.3% compared to 2023. Among them, the sowing area of grains [1] is 100458 thousand hectares (1506.87 million mu), an increase of 532 thousand hectares (7.97 million mu) or 0.5% compared to 2023.

2、 The national grain yield per unit area is 5921 kg/ha (395 kg/mu), an increase of 75.8 kg/ha (5.1 kg/mu) or 1.3% compared to 2023. The unit area yield of grains is 6493 kg/ha (433 kg/mu), an increase of 74.1 kg/ha (4.9 kg/mu) or 1.2% compared to 2023.

3、 The total grain output in China is 706.5 million tons (1413 billion catties), an increase of 11.09 million tons (22.2 billion catties) or 1.6% compared to 2023. Among them, the grain production was 652.29 million tons (1304.6 billion catties), an increase of 10.86 million tons (21.7 billion catties) or 1.7% compared to 2023.

On December 15, CCTV News Network launched the report "China Increases the Scale of New Corn Storage"

The report points out that the current progress of autumn grain procurement in China is smooth. According to the work arrangement of relevant national departments, China Grain Reserves Corporation and its affiliated enterprises will increase the collection and storage scale of domestically produced corn in Northeast China and other major corn producing areas by 2024, and actively enter the market to carry out procurement. As of now, China Grain Reserves Corporation has set up more than 340 purchasing points in major corn producing areas, actively playing a role in stabilizing the market and expectations.

In Inner Mongolia, China Grain Reserves Corporation has launched the purchase of 44 storage points throughout the region, with an average listing price of 60-80 yuan per ton higher than other purchasing entities in the same area, maintaining relatively stable prices and effectively playing a leading and driving role in the market.

At the same time, China Grain Reserves Corporation has launched a minimum purchase price plan for mid to late rice in eligible areas of Henan, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, and Anhui provinces. As of now, 216 storage points with the lowest purchase price have been announced to the public, with a daily storage capacity of over 170000 tons, and the overall acquisition is stable and orderly.

Policy based rotation of sales and gradual reduction of investment volume

In terms of the weekly bidding sales of China Grain Reserves Corporation, starting from the week of October 27th, the amount of domestically produced corn sales per week has also shown a continuous decreasing trend.

It is not difficult to see that whether it is macro level monetary easing, promoting consumption and other regulatory measures, or a series of measures related to agriculture, including stable production and supply, improving the mechanism for forming grain prices, and increasing storage capacity of corn itself (setting up more than 340 storage points), regulatory measures (continuously reducing sales and investment), etc., it can be said that they are all solid positive news for the bulk agricultural grain market, including corn, from a fundamental perspective and a longer-term macro perspective. Under the continuous fermentation of the above positive news, let's wait and see when the corn market will emerge from the haze.